Navigating the New Macro Scenario: Global Outlook for 2025-2026

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The global economy enters the 2025-2026 period navigating a "new macro scenario" defined by high turbulence and systemic shifts. The landscape is fractured by intensifying tariff wars, rising public debt, and a significant redistribution of investment activity due to geopolitical tensions.

Our partners at the Ukrainian Economic Outlook explore the critical factors shaping the next two years of global growth. Read December 2025 World Economy Outlook.

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Key Insights:

Moderating Global Growth

The IMF estimates global GDP growth at 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with notable slowdowns expected in China and the Eurozone.

The US Debt Challenge

US public debt remains high at approximately 119% of GDP, with interest servicing costs projected to reach $1 trillion in 2025, now the third-largest item in the US budget.

A Shift in Reserve Assets

For the first time in 30 years, central banks are prioritizing gold over US Treasuries. Major emerging economies, including China, India, and Brazil, have divested over $90 billion in US securities in the past year.

Gold’s Historic Ascent

‍Gold has solidified its status as the premier defensive asset, with prices exceeding $4,300 per ounce – a 50% increase since the start of the yeaand analysts eyeing a climb toward $5,000 by 2026.

Currency Volatility

The EUR/USD exchange rate has strengthened to the 1.17-1.18 range, driven by the Federal Reserve's softening policy and expectations of deeper rate cuts in the US compared to the ECB.

Commodity Market Bearishness

Energy and agricultural markets are seeing downward pressure, with Brent oil expected to average $68.30 in 2025 and European natural gas prices falling due to weaker demand and high storage levels.

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Read the full version of World Economy Outlook (December 2025)